The difficulty of beating the market is probably why so many money managers leave the profession.
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Actually, money managers are not sheep, but they still have a very difficult time beating the market. The big question is: why are the best professionals on Wall Street not able to beat the market? One reason is that we are faced with a very efficient market. With computers becoming almost as intelligent as people and with an ever-increasing large number of skilled professionals analyzing stocks, most information about a stock is already in the market, and the price of a stock reflects all the information that is currently available to the public. There is another reason the market is so efficient—a smart crowd.
For commanders, underestimating the enemy can be fatal. General Robert E.
Lee underestimated the morale and skill of the Union forces at Gettysburg, and his army was defeated. General Ulysses S. Grant underestimated the strength of the Confederate forces at Cold Harbor, and thousands of his men were slaughtered. Don't underestimate your fellow investors or your competitors. You ignore them at your own risk. The crowd is smart.
There is an old saying that goes something like this: he or she who keeps his or her head while those around him or her are losing theirs, probably doesn't fully understand the situation. This is usually the case. If a stock is falling, the crowd knows something. Check it out. It's sort of like if you see a crowd of people running in the opposite direction you're headed—take note.
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There probably is a good reason for their flight, maybe wild elephants stampeding. In most investment markets the crowd is very smart, smarter than the most intelligent people within the crowd. It is the crowd that determines the stock price, and when stock prices drop dramatically for no reason, beware!
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